NFL Football 2024 Conference Championships Review. Last week’s article showed the odds of the top five teams to win the Super Bowl. The last four teams left are part of that top five, but like musical chairs, there are five teams for four spots. One of them had to go. Buffalo did not make the cut. Here are the latest odds.
Who Will Lead Their Conference into the Super Bowl?
Last Week This Week
San Francisco 49ers: +175 +140
Baltimore Ravens: +290 +200
Buffalo Bills: +500 gone
Kansas City Chiefs: +700 +325
Detroit Lions: +900 +750
Sunday, January 28
AFC Championship Game
- Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 45.5)
NFC Championship Game
- Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 51.5)
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has struggled with his offense this season, most notably a league-worst 5.7% drop rate for the receivers. Baltimore’s defense has been much better than the Chief’s offense, which Mahomes and play caller Andy Reid will need to address.
On the other side of the ball, Mahomes has the best KC defense he’s ever worked with, showcased by Chris Jones, L’Jarius Sneed, and Justin Reid. They are fourth in EPA per play allowed. Unfortunately, their ability to contain Baltimore’s offense could be hampered if linebacker Willie Gay Jr. doesn’t return from the neck injury he received in the Bills game. Veteran defensive back Mike Edwards is in concussion protocol after leaving the Bills game in the first quarter. There’s no word yet whether he’ll return for the Baltimore game.
I wouldn’t count Mahomes out, as he is 12-1 ATS in his NFL career when he’s an underdog. Nine of those games were wins. The Chiefs went 12-5 on the Unders during the regular season, and with a frugal defense on Baltimore, I would watch for a lower-scoring game than one might expect.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson ran for 100 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans during the Divisional Round. He might not have as much production against Kansas City’s defense, but that depends on the status of a few injured defensive players with the Chiefs.
Jackson has been compared to Mahomes for years but has not been able to get very far in the playoffs. This game gives him the opportunity to make a statement or show why he’s never played in the AFC Championship before. He didn’t put in a total effort when overpowering the Texans, but he’ll have to play at his best for a full four quarters if he wants to beat Mahomes. He has the team to do it, so it’s up to him to utilize it fully.
Detroit Lions
The Lions will utilize their running game to work against the 49ers, who aren’t as strong at defending the rush. San Fran is great at defending the deep passes, but Jared Goff generally sticks to the shorter throws. He passed for at least 277 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in both playoff games against the Rams and Buccaneers. He’s been playing almost flawlessly with complete confidence.
If you offer props bets in your sportsbook, Goff’s passing yards bet for this game is 260.5 yards. His strong arm should be able to surpass that, so watch your limits. Another prop bet is for receiver Jameson Williams, set at 28.5 total yards. He could do that in one reception.
On other bets, the Lions have been successful against the spread, posting 13-6 ATS this season.
San Francisco 49ers
This is the third year in a row that the 49ers have made it to the NFC championship. In the last two seasons, they stopped right there. Last year, Brock Purdy’s elbow injury abruptly stopped them from advancing. Purdy is another year tougher and more experienced, but he was shaky at times against the Packers. They’re going against a young team led by Jared Goff, who has won the NFC championship before.
Having the home-field advantage hasn’t been a big help for the 49ers, as they are 3-6 ATS at Levi’s Stadium. Add to that a loud contingent of Lions fans that might be out-cheering the locals. The 49ers are the better team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl. This is a game that is theirs to lose. Detroit will make them work for every yard.
As with the remaining few games, keep your limits in and use your layoff account when necessary.
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